A micro-simulation model of shipment size and transport chain choice

摘要

Practically every international, national or regional freight transport model system in the world lacks explicit treatment of logistics choices (such as shipment size considerations or the use of distribution centres). This paper deals with the development of a new logistics model and its application within the national freight model systems of Norway and Sweden. This logistics model operates at the level of individual firm-to-firm (sender-to-receiver) relations and simulates the choice of shipment size and transport chain for all (several millions) these relations within the country, export and import. A logistics model with deterministic cost minimisation has been constructed for both Norway and Sweden. The full random utility logistics model has not yet been estimated on disaggregate data, but this is planned for both countries. For Sweden, more limited disaggregate models for the choice of mode and shipment size have been estimated.