Who will buy alternative fueled or automated vehicles: A modular, behavioral modeling approach

摘要

Future car purchase can determine an array of things ranging from CO2 emissions to urban life quality. For this reason, models and methods predicting car purchase are valuable to policy makers. This paper examines the future car purchase choice, using modules and different levels of attributes that construct a car, and measures the effect on the purchase choice of personality traits such as symbolic/exuberant attitudes towards vehicles. The results may enable policy makers to focus on certain market segments when promoting alternative fuel and automated vehicles. The paper proposes a hybrid choice model, with latent variables capturing the pro-environmental, exuberant and tech-friendly attitudes of individuals. The questionnaire presented to the respondents is in the form of a menu, from which participants may choose five different types of vehicle characteristics (engine size, type of car, fuel type, car edition and level of automation) to construct their ideal vehicle. Results indicate a negative correlation between symbolic, exuberant attitudes towards automobiles, the view of cars as symbols, and willingness to purchase a hybrid or electric vehicle. The findings further suggest that there is a correlation between symbol-driven exuberant attitudes and the desire to buy a larger vehicle. This paper examines the relationship between the symbolic perception of cars and, simultaneously, a range of characteristics, to discover which car attributes the symbolic perception affects. It also proposes an integrated framework for the modeling of future car purchase, with the hypothesis that each of the three presented latent variables can affect different modules of the individual's ideal car concept.