Do changes in travellers' attitudes towards car use and ownership over time affect travel mode choice? A latent transition approach in the Netherlands

摘要

This paper examines how changes in travellers' attitudes towards car use and ownership change over time and how these changes influence car use, based on the 2014 and 2016 waves of the Netherlands Mobility Panel (N = 1640). A latent transition model was estimated to investigate transitions between different segments based on travellers' attitudes towards car use and ownership, and the latent transition probabilities were used to predict changes in mode use. Four latent classes were found to reflect the participants' attitudes: cost-sensitive, car-minded, environmentally aware and social-conscious travellers. Most of the participants remained in the same class between 2014 and 2016, which suggests that attitudes towards car use and ownership are stable over time. Also, the results indicate that car use and car ownership may be less widespread among younger adults. Only when younger adults face life events, such as moving, starting a job or become parents, transitioning to more car-oriented profiles appears more likely. Changes in attitudes towards car use and car ownership do not significantly affect car use (number of trips per day), except for the social-conscious travellers who switched to the carminded class. This suggests that, in most cases, a more positive or negative attitude towards car use and ownership does not directly affect the frequency of car use.