Predicting travel pattern changes of freight trucks in the Tokyo Metropolitan area based on the latest large-scale urban freight survey and route choice modeling

摘要

This study aims at predicting travel pattern changes of freight trucks in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area by taking full advantage of the latest large-scale urban freight survey. We found that travel patterns changed significantly depending on the type of trucks. A route choice model with the concept of the maximum route-overlapping ratio was developed and the calibrated model was found to be appropriate for our analysis. Finally, we analyzed various policy scenarios and found that the full operation of the three ring roads would contribute to smoother traffic whereas the extension of weight-designated road might have a relatively small impact.