Feasibility of the Northern Sea Route: The role of distance, fuel prices, ice breaking fees and ship size for the product tanker market

摘要

This paper investigates the feasibility of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) using a speed optimisation model to minimise the required freight rate, by employing current data from a shipowner, supported by secondary data, conducting petroleum product transport on the NSR. The oil product tanker segment is used to assess route alternatives taking into account distance, ship size, ice breaking fees, fuel types and prices. Environmental policy elements are included in the cost analysis to account for low sulphur fuels from 2020, a prospective ban on the use of heavy fuel oil in the Arctic, and a possible global fuel tax.