(11) Population Dynamics Along Railway-Based on Japan's Future Population Estimation

摘要

For many years, railroads have functioned as a means of supporting exchanges between people and goods. However, especially in rural areas, the decline in the population, which is the source of transport demand, has decreased greatly, and further declining population will not make it possible to maintain them. In this study, based on National Institute of Population and Social Security Research Institute's estimation, we compiled and analyzed how the population along the railway change in the future. As a result, we cannot expect the growth of the young population and the productive age population, which will be the basis of regular passenger transportation. Also it was revealed that the pace at which the population declines is faster as the transportation density is lower.