Estimating Trip Generation of Elderly and Disabled People: Analysis of London Data

摘要

The aging of populations has implications for trip-making behavior and the demand for special transport services. The London Area Travel Survey 2001 is analyzed to establish the trip-making characteristics of elderly and disabled people. Ordinal probit models are fitted for all trips and for trips by four purposes (work, shopping, personal business, and recreational), with daily trip frequency as the latent variable. A log-linear model is used to analyze trip length. A distinction must be made between young disabled, younger elderly, and older elderly people. Retired people initially tend to make more trips, but as they become older and disabilities intervene, trip making tails off. Household structure, income, car ownership, possession of a driver's license, difficulty walking, and other disabilities are found to affect trip frequency and length to a greater or lesser extent.