Modelling parking choice behaviour using Possibility Theory

摘要

This article presents a discrete choice model for evaluating parking users' behaviour. In order to explicitly take into account imprecision and uncertainty underlying a user's choice process, the proposed model has been developed within the framework of Possibility Theory. This approach is an alternative way to represent imperfect knowledge (uncertainty) of users about both parking and transportation system status, as well as the approximate reasoning of the human decision maker (imprecision). The resulting model is a quantitative soft computing tool that could support traffic analysts in planning parking policies and Advanced Traveller Information Systems. In fact, effects of information on user choice can be incorporated into the model itself. Thus, we consider the parking user be a decision maker who assumes a certain choice set (set of perceived parking alternatives); the user has some information about the parking supply system and he/she associates each parking alternative with an approximate perceived cost/utility that is represented by a possibility distribution; and, finally, the user chooses the alternative which minimises/maximises his/her perceived parking cost/utility. The results show how the model is able to represent the effect of various parking policies on users' behaviour and how the single component of parking policy affects the decision process.