Multicriteria analysis of inland waterway transport projects: the case of the Marajo Island waterway project in Brazil

摘要

This paper proposes a multicriteria methodology for the analysis of investment in inland waterway infrastructure projects, taking into consideration allocative efficiency, the effect on regional development and environmental impact. The methodology is based on an analytic hierarchy process approach. As an example, the case of an important Brazilian Amazonian project is analysed. The Marajo Island waterway project has been under discussion for a long time in Brazil, as it is located in an environmentally sensitive area, but at the same time it is considered to have a critical impact on regional economic development. A Monte Carlo simulation is performed to take into account uncertainties related to knowledge failure on project impact or on the conditions that determine the relative importance of the decision criteria.