A Piecewise Linear Multinomial Logit Model of Private Vehicle Ownership Behaviour of Indian Households

摘要

Development of vehicle ownership models isrnchallenging in developing countries due to lack of qualityrndata. In the Indian context, although some studies havernbeen conducted about disaggregate modelling of vehiclernownership behaviour, most of them are region specific.rnThis paper reviews the development of a basic multinomialrnlogit vehicle ownership model presented earlier by thernsame authors using available data sets in India and thenrnpresents another multinomial logit model which uses arnsegmented specification of the systematic utilities of variousrnalternatives. The new model is designed to examine ifrnthe various factors affecting vehicle ownership behaviourrndo so differently for richer households as compared to thernrest of the households. It is observed that the various factorsrnindeed affect private vehicle ownership decisionrnmaking process differently for richer households. The newrnmodel is then tested for efficiency using a simulationrntesting technique. The simulation test shows that the newrnmodel is effective in modelling private vehicle ownershiprnin Indian scenario. The paper also presents various inferencesrndrawn from the coefficients of the explanatoryrnvariables included in the model.