How stable is the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia? Evidence from disaggregated tourism markets

摘要

We contribute to the tourism-growth literature by applying the newly developed combined cointegra-tion test and the recursive Granger causality test to re-assess the stability of the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia with respect to 12 different tourism markets. The cointegration test results suggest that economic growth of Malaysia is cointegrated with all the 12 selected tourism markets. However, the recursive Granger causality test shows that the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia is valid and stable with respect to tourist arrivals from only 8 out of the 12 tourism markets. Almost all of them are from developed countries. Hence, not all international visitor arrivals could effectively drive the growth of the Malaysian economy. In light of this, tourism marketing policies should focus more on those tourism markets that could significantly stimulate economic growth. However, there should not be total neglect of others as they potentially contribute to the economies of scale.