Impact of climate-related changes to the timing of autumn foliage colouration on tourism in Japan

摘要

This study introduces plant phenophase as a "bridge" to assessing the impact of climate change on autumn foliage viewing tourism in Japan. The results showed that from 1978 to 2016, the autumnal foliage colouration of four cities in Japan was delayed, the duration of the autumnal leaf discolouration was significantly shortened, and only one city experienced a significant delay in leaf-falling. The delay in the autumn foliage colouration and leaf-falling periods on average increase the December maple viewing tourism volume by 3.64% and 3.02%, respectively. The impact on autumn maple foliage viewing tourism volume also has a 1-year delay effect, and the maple foliage phenophase of different cities have significantly varied influence on maple foliage viewing tourism volume. Overall, the change in the timing of maple leaf discolouration has been advantageous to the Japanese maple tourism industry.