Re-examining the law of iterated expectations for Choquet decision makers

摘要

Yoo (Economic Letters 37:145-149, 1991) argues that the law of iterated expectations must be violated if the probability measure of a Choquet decision maker is non-additive. In this article, we prove the positive result that the law of iterated expectations is satisfied for Choquet decision makers whenever they update their non-additive beliefs in accordance with the Sarin and Wakker (Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 16:223-250, 1998) update rule. The formal key to this result is the act-dependence of the Sarin-Wakker update rule, which does not hold for the update rules considered by Yoo (1991).