Trends in Arctic seasonal and extreme precipitation in recent decades

摘要

Daily precipitation data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim) from 1979 to 2016 are analyzed to determine the trends in seasonal and extreme precipitation across the pan-Arctic and estimate the contributions to the trends from the dynamic (e.g., changes in circulation patterns) and thermodynamic processes (e.g., sea ice melt-water vapor feedback) and their interactions. The trends in the seasonal total precipitation are generally consistent with the trends in the occurrence of seasonal extreme precipitation. Although the trends vary considerably in direction and magnitude across the pan-Arctic and the seasons, more regions experience a statistically significant positive trend than negative trend, particularly in autumn and winter seasons and over areas of the Arctic Ocean and the northern North Atlantic. Statistically significant negative trends are mostly found in areas of northern Eurasian and North America. The thermodynamic processes account for more than 85% of the total trends, with the rest of the trends explained by the dynamic processes (e.g., changes in circulation patterns) and the interaction between dynamic and thermodynamic processes.