Meteorological drought monitoring and preparation of long-term and short-term drought zoning maps using regional frequency analysis and L-moment in the Khuzestan province of Iran

摘要

Drought analysis has gained great importance owning to recent global warming and climate change. Because of the importance of the Khuzestan province in agriculture and economy of Iran, a semi-arid country, this research evaluates its meteorological drought severity. The data from 40 meteorological stations in the period of 1954 to 2016 were collected and used for this purpose. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) has been used for assessing the 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales meteorological droughts. For regional drought analysis, the linear momentum method is used and after selection of the best regional probability distribution, SPI was calculated at each meteorological station for different return periods and time scales. The results indicated that severe and extreme droughts may occur in west, east, and south of the Khuzestan province in the near future. Also, while the severity of drought is less in north of the Khuzestan province, the probability of occurrence of severe and extreme droughts in central zone of the Khuzestan province (e.g., Ahvaz) is less than other regions.