Impacts of climate extremes on activity sectors - stakeholders' perspective

摘要

Significant changes in the climatic system have been observed, which may be attributed to human-enhanced greenhouse effect. Even stronger changes are projected for the future, impacting in an increasing way on human activity sectors. The present contribution, prepared in the framework of the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) Project of the European Union, reviews how climate change may impact on winter tourism in the Alpine region, intense precipitation and flood potential in central Europe, forest damage in Scandinavia and beach holidays in the Mediterranean coast. Impacts are likely to be serious and largely adverse. Due to a lack of adequate information and lack of broadly accepted and reliable mathematical models describing the impact of changes in climate extremes on these activity sectors, it has been found useful to use expert judgement based impact assessment. Accordingly, regional mini-workshops were organized serving as platforms for communication between scientists and stakeholders, vehicles for dissemination of the state-of-the-rnart of the scientific understanding and for learning stakeholders' view on extreme events, their impacts and the preparedness system. Stakeholders had the opportunity to react to the scientific results and to reflect on their perception of the likely impacts of projected changes in extremes on relevant activity sectors and the potential to adapt and avert adverse consequences. The results reported in this paper present the stakeholders' suggestions for essential information on different extreme event impacts and their needs from science.