Landslide susceptibility modeling in a landslide prone area in Mazandarn Province, north of Iran: a comparison between GLM, GAM, MARS, and M-AHP methods

摘要

Landslides are identified as one of the most important natural hazards in many areas throughout the world. The essential purpose of this study is to compare general linear model (GLM), general additive model (GAM), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), and modified analytical hierarchy process (M-AHP) models and assessment of their performances for landslide susceptibility modeling in the west of Mazandaran Province, Iran. First, landslides were identified by interpreting aerial photographs, and extensive field works. In total, 153 landslides were identified in the study area. Among these, 105 landslides were randomly selected as training data (i.e. used in the models training) and the remaining 48 (30 %) cases were used for the validation (i.e. used in the models validation). Afterward, based on a deep literature review on 220 scientific papers (period between 2005 and 2012), eleven conditioning factors including lithology, land use, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, slope angle, slope aspect, altitude, topographic wetness index (TWI), plan curvature, and profile curvature were selected. The Certainty Factor (CF) model was used for managing uncertainty in rule-based systems and evaluation of the correlation between the dependent (landslides) and independent variables. Finally, the landslide susceptibility zonation was produced using GLM, GAM, MARS, and M-AHP models. For evaluation of the models, the area under the curve (AUC) method was used and both success and prediction rate curves were calculated. The evaluation of models for GLM, GAM, and MARS showed 90.50, 88.90, and 82.10 % for training data and 77.52, 70.49, and 78.17 % for validation data, respectively. Furthermore, The AUC value of the produced landslide susceptibility map using M-AHP showed a training value of 77.82 % and validation value of 82.77 % accuracy. Based on the overall assessments, the proposed approaches showed reasonable results for landslide susceptibility mapping in the study area. Moreover, results obtained showed that the M-AHP model performed slightly better than the MARS, GLM, and GAM models in prediction. These algorithms can be very useful for landslide susceptibility and hazard mapping and land use planning in regional scale.