Trends Now Shaping the Future: Economic, Societal, and Environmental Trends

摘要

The long-term economic growth that had been interrupted by the recession and post-September 11 turmoil of 2001 is returning and extending to the developing world. Population growth is slowing, and it is also aging, shifting pressures on governments and economies to attend to the needs of growing numbers of elderly people. These are among the key trends shaping the world of the next two decades and beyond, according to Marvin J. Cetron, president of Forecasting International Ltd., and science writer Owen Davies. For some four decades, Forecasting International has conducted an ongoing study of the forces changing our world. One of the values of tracking major trends over a long time frame is that we can see whether sudden shifts are indicators of seismic transitions or merely temporary anomalies or fads. This latest edition of Forecasting International's report adds three new trend areas to its knowledge base of major forces shaping the future: mass migration and its impacts, the rise of militant Islam, and the evaporation of privacy. Forecasts stemming from these trends range from the very near term (2005-2010) to medium-range futures (up to 2050). but the authors make no attempt to speculate on very-long-range futures that may prove of little practical use. Whatever your concern, some of these trends will have a very direct impact upon it. Others will help to form the general environment in which we live and work. They all merit attention from anyone who must prepare for what lies ahead. The authors-and the World Future Society-welcome your feedback.