Fault tolerant ballistic missile defense: defining constraints

摘要

It is argued that a fault-tolerant ballistic missile defense (BMD) system must not increase the probability of accidental nuclear exchanges. This requirement is used to define three constraints for BMD systems: the deployment of any BMD system must be accompanied by deliberate steps to reduce the responsiveness of offensive nuclear weapons by all sides; a deliberate and assured lag time should be built into offensive nuclear systems to allow for real-time assessments of any BMD actions prior to the release of any offensive nuclear weapons; and BMD systems should not have the capacity to cause rapid losses to opposing BME system components or be vulnerable to rapid losses from opposing BMD systems. BMD efforts in both the United States and the Soviet Union are not likely to meet these constraints and therefore should not be considered fault-tolerant. A more limited BMD system is posited as a solution.