Hockey-Stick Economics: Robert Fogel, The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700-2100

摘要

In some circles, the idea that history is gradual and continuous is still tenaciously held. Economic historians know better. The past is not what it used to be, and changes have been, at times, dizzyingly abrupt. In terms of some material variables, both human and environmental, a new metaphor has caught on recently: a hockey stick. The image conveys the idea of a very sharp turn upward after a long period of stability. This figure of speech seems to have been first used by climatologist Michael Mann apropos of the sharp upturn of temperature after 1900, and it has become a common (and contested) description of the perceived environmental impact of industrialization.