Technological development pathway for a low-carbon primary aluminum industry in China

摘要

China is the world's largest producer of primary aluminum and its production will continue to grow in the future. It is very important to optimize the technological development pathway for the low-carbon transition of primary aluminum industry given its continuing increasing energy consumption and carbon emissions. To that end, this study develops a bottom-up model, named National Energy Technology- Aluminum (NET-AL) model. The energy saving potential for three types of strategies are evaluated, including eliminating backward-production capacity, promoting advanced technology, and optimizing industry power structure. The key results are as follows: (1) All emission reduction strategies indicate that CO2 emissions could peak in 2025, and the cumulative emission reduction potential is 5.3% by 2050; (2) The advanced technologies have significant effects on energy saving. The role of promoting seven-effect tube evaporation technology and energy-saving combination technology of new conductivity structure are emphasized. Optimizing the power structure can effectively reduce indirect CO2 emissions, in which the largest penetration of hydropower-aluminum joint production is suggested to be 6.5%; (3) The joint impacts of the discussed three strategies, could not only lead to energy saving, but also brings economic benefits for China's primary aluminum industry.