Driving factors and decoupling effect of carbon footprint pressure in China:Based on net primary production

摘要

Global warming has rapidly become a problem that is threatening human survival. To meet China's commitments under the Paris Agreement to limit carbon emission intensity, an in-depth study of the driving factors of China's carbon footprint and its decoupling from gross domestic product (GDP) is needed. In this study, the carbon footprint pressure (CFP) index is constructed using the ratio of the carbon source to the carbon sink. We use the IPAT equation and logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method to analyze the driving factors of China's CFP from 2000 to 2017 and measure the temporal and spatial changes of the decoupling state between CFP and GDP. The results show that from 2000 to 2017, the changes in China's CFP mainly undergo two stages: high growth in the early stage and gradual flattening in the latter stage. Economic growth is the mainly responsible for CFP growth, while technological progress is the main driving factor of CFP decline. Population growth and vegetation quality improvement have positive and negative effects on CFP, respectively. China is in a transition stage between the weak and strong decoupling of CFP and economic growth. In 2017, China's carbon emission intensity has been reported to be approximately 59% lower than in 2005, and the growth rate of China's carbon emissions has been near zero since 2014, which indicates that China is expected to achieve part of the emission reduction target (60-65%) proposed in the Paris Agreement by 2030.