Economic spillover effect of grass-based livestock husbandry on agricultural production-A case study in Hulun Buir, China

摘要

As an important part of agriculture, the changes of grass-based livestock husbandry (GBLH) production will inevitably have a significant impact on agricultural sectors and regional economy. We firstly measured the total factor productivity (TFP) of GBLH from 2001 to 2016 by DEA-Malmquist model. Secondly, an ORANI-G model was constructed based on IO table to analyze the economic spillover effect of GBLH on agricultural production in Hulun Buir. The results indicate that the TFP shows an upward trend with an average annual growth rate at only 1%. The TFP increase leads to a significant growth of GDP, export and import (0.07%, 0.11%, 0.02%), improving technical efficiency can further enhance these impacts, while they weakens if it was decreasing. Moreover, the increase of efficiency leads to a growth of output of agricultural products, especially livestock products. The supply and transfer out of livestock products can reach a 3.27% and 6.59% improvement respectively. Additionally, the increase of livestock production and the decrease of price will inevitable lead to a growth on demand, and improving the efficiency can gain more labor employment. In a long term, the increasing efficiency of GBLH is also an adaptation measure to realize win-win for both ecological and economic benefit.