A Generalized Form of the Fisher-Pry Model of Technological Substitution

摘要

In this paper we propose a possible generalization of the Fisher-Pry model of technology substitution by making the growth parameter time dependent. The computation of time dependence of the growth parameter allows us to measure departures from the Fisher-Pry description and suggests possibilities of making better forecasts. Three representative data sets have been analyzed to illustrate our arguments.