A methodology for organizing and quantifying the results of environmental scanning exercises

摘要

This paper presents a methodology for organizing and quantifying the results of environmental scanning exercises. The first step of the methodology is to develop a simple systems model whose components capture the essence of the problem context under study. Then, a scan identifies leads that affect one or more components. The impact a lead may have on a component is rated on a numerical scale for any number of time periods of interest. Lower and upper probabilities are estimated for each impact rating for each time period. Lower and upper expected impact scores are then calculated to provide a range of potential impacts over time. An exponential function is used to aggregate the lower and upper expected impact scores upon a component to produce lower and upper expected component changes. The methodology also allows changes in components to impact other components. The methodology was implemented to explore impacts of demographic and technological change upon the future of human and ecological health in the United States.