Change in socio-technical systems: Researching the Multis, the Biggers, and the More Connecteds

摘要

As the newly named Senior Editor of Technological Forecasting & Social Change, I welcome this opportunity to thank Editor-in-Chief Hal Linstone for being a good friend and mentor these many years, and for his confidence in my work. Hal, I am acutely aware of this journal's venerable history and unique value! Its unitary view of technological and social change, its international orientation, and its cautious forays into technology policy drew me to it, kept me fascinated, and created my commitment to its future.1 This essay presents my thoughts on current imperatives and future directions inTFSC's areas of inquiry. I'll start by reiterating a definition of those areas-"reiterating," because I believe my vision of the journal's mission is the same as Hal's. I will go on to characterize our new global socio-technical environment in terms of the Multis, the Biggers (and Smallers), and the More Connecteds, and argue that our challenge as researchers is to respond to these three features of our changing world. I will note several research emphases that I believe will help forge this response. I'll mention, as well, a few research thrusts that probably will not help. The last part of the essay presents additional views of where our field will go and should go, in light of these new challenges, with recommendations for modelers. The views are, as this page's header announces, "perspectives," and not a statement of editorial policy. They add to those of Coates et al. [1 ] and Gordon, Glenn and Jakil [2], which appeared in these pages a few years ago.