Beyond the obvious: Examining ways of consolidating early detection schemes

摘要

In the domain of futures studies, the need to develop methods and concepts to identify risks or opportunities "early enough" has become an issue and almost a discrete sub-field with its own debates, specialties and schools of thought. Our examination of the literature in this domain shows that early detection, early warning or weak signal analysis, to mention just a few of the terms being used, tends to convey the idea that finding faint evidence of possible futures is actually rather easy. We, however, believe that it is far from being an off-the-shelf process for whoever wants to detect early signs of changes. At the very least it raises cost/benefit questions, and it may have some shortcomings which, if ignored, could substantially increase the vulnerability of an organization. Our goal in this paper is to explore ways of going beyond an overly optimistic approach and provide a basis for the pragmatic use of weak signals and similar notions in strategic management and policy-making processes. After browsing through the several approaches that propose methods for the "early" tackling of trends, uncertainties, risks or opportunities to come, we will focus on the approaches defined by 1) weak signals and 2) early warnings or equivalents for the analysis of possible futures. We will in particular examine how mainstream claims have been presented then improved in the last 25 years, as well as how some of the problems involved have been insufficiently addressed so far. We will then show how these problems (closely linked to how the early perception claims are configured — how they are framed and modeled but also made affordable and useful) can directly impact the performance and management style of the organizations and societal settings in which they are deployed. The concluding section will propose a pragmatic approach to the problems raised: paradigmatic weaknesses or forms of blindness. This precautionary principle should lead to a real option approach in terms of futures to be considered and evaluated, so as to enhance the chances of avoiding risks, as well as following up promising directions, radical innovations or, more generally, strategic decision-making processes in both the corporate and policy-making arenas.