Patent and publishing activity sequence over a technology's life cycle

摘要

The use of multiple indicators in analyzing technological developments and exploiting the increasing availability of information has been recommended widely in order to decrease systematic biases between single measures. One of the few frameworks that take multiple sources into account is the Technology Life Cycle indicators that provide a measure for the totality of sources available for analysis and take their timeliness into account, although the linear model that the framework represents is often questioned. The aim of this paper is to provide bibliometric studies with insight into the timely relevance of using different databases. To assess the reporting sequence between different databases, this paper measures the reporting activity of three case technologies in different databases and analyzes the yearly reporting volumes of a number of items that mention the technology in the databases as suggested by the TLC indicators. The results of this paper suggest that, when science is the source of new ideas and the driver for technological development and innovations, communication can happen in the order suggested by the TLC indicators. However, this model does not seem to be a general model for detecting and forecasting a technological life cycle. In addition, the results of the paper point to the possibility of studying non-linear models of innovation and contexts where this type of dynamics might take place.