A structured scenario approach to multi-screen ecosystem forecasting in Korean communications market

摘要

Ecosystem forecasting is a challenge for any forecaster since it has a large number of variables, which vary dynamically, tightly coupled with environmental factors under a complex ecosystem architecture. The ecosystem behaves like a complex system as a whole where one variable may serve as a hierarchical pillar to other variables, while others interact with each other in non-linear forms of substitution, complementarity, synergy and externalities. This paper is targeted to develop a profound structured approach to the ecosystem forecasting which combines scenario planning with technological forecasting. Three key planning principles are derived and incorporated into the structured ecosystem forecasting methodology. To demonstrate its effectiveness, the Korean multi-screen service market is analyzed and prospected toward the year 2016. Policy and strategic implications from the structured ecosystem forecasting are also discussed to validate the practicality of the suggested methodology. (C) 2014 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc.