Energy technology foresight in emerging economies

摘要

This paper offers a novel comprehensive conceptualization of Energy Technology Foresight (ETF) in emerging economies, including development trajectories, key methodological tools and elements, major challenges and weaknesses. ETF allows the emerging economies to provide the basis for government's energy policy, to create a common vision among the various actors and to strengthen R&D and innovation basis in the energy sector. The author presents five basic premises to conceptualize the ETF approach in emerging economies: the need to take into account higher risks and uncertainties; integration of foresight outcomes in national and corporate strategic planning; constant revision of ETF methodology; dominance of economic, technological and security considerations; and the inability to catch-up with the energy technology development of the world leaders. Three case-studies (Russia, Brazil and China) of ETF in emerging markets are presented to illustrate and substantiate the conceptual approach.