Photovoltaics energy: Improved modeling and analysis of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and grid parity - Egypt case study

摘要

This paper presents improved modeling and analysis of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) associated with photovoltaic (PV) power plants. The presented model considers the effective lifetime of various PV technologies rather than the usual use of the financial lifetime. The classical use of the solar advisor model (SAM) software is modified for considering the effective and financial lifetimes into consideration. The impact of the effective lifetime on the LCOE and the energy production is clearly presented. In addition, the presented analysis covers a wide range of PV technological characteristics, sun tracking options, and meteorological conditions. Parametric and sensitivity studies are also presented for overcoming the uncertainties in the input data and for searching of the significant options for LCOE reduction. The feasible use of PV energy is analyzed through grid parity analysis. The meteorological conditions of some locations in Egypt and the Egypt's tariff structure are considered in the presented numerical examples. The salient outcome of this paper is that the effective lifetime has a significant impact on both the LCOE and the lifetime energy production. In addition, significant conclusions regarding the effectiveness of various sun tracking options as affected by the PV technological and locational characteristics are derived.