2-D Wind Speed Statistical Model for Reliability Assessment of Microgrid

摘要

Appropriate wind speed modeling for generating synthetic wind speed data is crucial in microgrid reliability evaluation studies. This paper proposes a 2-D wind speed statistical model based on historical wind speed data. The first dimension of the proposed wind model focuses on the probability distribution on the time duration of different wind speed scales, while the second dimension focuses on the probability distribution of wind speed in each wind speed scale. Unlike traditional wind speed models, the proposed model can simultaneously deal with the probabilistic characteristics of wind speed and wind time duration. This paper also presents a 2-D wind model-based data sampling method, and incorporates it into the microgrid reliability assessment algorithm. Using historical wind speed data in Tianjin, China, it shows that the proposed 2-D wind speed statistical model helps to fully simulate the volatility of wind energy. Furthermore, the proposed wind speed model is applied on the microgrid reliability evaluation study, which shows that the proposed model can be effectively utilized by planners to conduct reliability evaluation for microgrid.