Wind–Wave Coupling Model for Wave Energy Forecast

摘要

Since waves fluctuate continuously, the forecast of the wave energy is very important for the operation of the power system integrated with large-scale wave energy generations. Waves are driven by wind, so that the relationship between wind and wave is very useful in wave energy forecast. Hence, a wave energy forecast method based on the wind-wave coupling model is proposed in this paper. The wave is first divided into wind waves and swells. The correlation between wind and wind wave is analyzed, and a wind-wave coupling model is established using copula function. Based on the coupling model and the forecasted wind speed, the average wave height of the wind wave can be forecasted, while the time series method is used to forecast the average wave height of the swell. Combining the wind wave and the swell, the average wave height of the integrated wave is obtained and the wave energy can be forecasted. Using the measured wind and wave data from a real ocean, the day-ahead wave energy is forecasted by the proposed method. The forecast result is close to the measured data and the effectiveness of the proposed wave energy forecast method is validated.