A framework for probabilistic fire loss estimation in concrete building structures

摘要

A framework is proposed for the probabilistic estimation of yearly economic losses due to fire in concrete building structures. The fire loss estimation accounts for the uncertainties in the occurrence and growth of a fire as well as the response of the building. The assessment performs a fire hazard analysis, response analysis, damage analysis, and loss analysis. The response analysis relies on three-dimensional finite element modeling of the building structure. The expected direct loss for the building is determined by summing the expected losses under fires in different locations, weighted by the annual probabilities of fire occurrence in each location. To achieve this goal, we propose fire-specific engineering demand parameters (EDP) that are measurable and associated with damage states. One EDP addresses section damage due to temperature penetration, while a second EDP addresses component damage linked to deformations. We also define a set of fragility functions and consequence functions based on the selected damage states. The presented framework is applied to a case study of a five-story reinforced concrete frame building. Direct losses are evaluated at about 188 k$ for scenarios of single -compartment fire, conditional to the occurrence of severe fire. Losses are mostly related to nonstructural components and content. Although the case study focuses on single-compartment fires, losses in case of fire spreading within the building can be incorporated as well using event tree analysis with the conditional probability of the respective fire scenarios. The yearly fire loss framework presented in this paper can be adopted for other types of buildings and can be integrated into the workflow for the hazard vulnerability assessment of a community.