The Challenges and Opportunities of a Negotiated Settlement in Afghanistan

摘要

For the last 15 years, the war in Afghanistan has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and the United States has sent thousands of troops and spent billions of dollars supporting strategies that have been unable to curtail the violence in the country. In addition to deploying over 130,000 troops from 51 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries and its partner nations, the United States alone spent over $686 billion in the 'Afghan war'. Yet 2015 was reported to be the deadliest year for Afghanistan, and the insurgency (mainly referring to the Taliban in this essay) is as strong as ever. The civilian casualties caused by insurgent attacks have been rising continuously since 2002. In its Annual Report for 2015, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) recorded 21,323 deaths and 37,413 injuries between 2009 and 2015. The Long War Journal reported in March 2016 that the Taliban have either seized control of, or have contested control over, a sizable number of districts across Afghanistan, including in the provinces of Herat, Farah, Helmand, and Kandahar over the past year (2015). North-western and north-eastern provinces such as Faryab, Kunduz, and Badakhshan have also witnessed continued insurgent attacks, especially during 2014-2015. Therefore, the essay seeks an answer to the question: Should the Afghan Government emphasize and prioritize a renewed military engagement or a negotiated political settlement, given the nature of the armed conflict?