Risk-based environmental decision-making using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP)

摘要

Environmental risk management is an integral part of risk analyses. The selection of different mitigating or preventive alternatives often involve competing and conflicting criteria, which requires sophisticated multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is one of the most commonly used MCDM methods, which integrates subjective and personal preferences in performing analyses. AHP works on a premise that decision-making of complex problems can be handled by structuring the complex problem into a simple and comprehensible hierarchical structure. However, AHP involves human subjectivity, which introduces vagueness type uncertainty and necessitates the use of decision-making under uncertainty. In this paper, vagueness type uncertainty is considered using fuzzy-based techniques. The traditional AHP is modified to fuzzy AHP using fuzzy arithmetic operations. The concept of risk attitude and associated confidence of a decision maker on the estimates of pairwise comparisons are also discussed. The methodology of the proposed technique is built on a hypothetical example and its efficacy is demonstrated through an application dealing with the selection of drilling fluid/ mud for offshore oil and gas operations.