Multi-models for SPI drought forecasting in the north of Haihe River Basin, China

摘要

Drought is one of the most devastating climate disasters. Hence, drought forecasting plays an important role in mitigating some of the adverse effects of drought. Data-driven models are widely used for drought forecasting such as ARIMA model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, wavelet neural network (WANN) model, support vector regression model, grey model and so on. Three data-driven models (ARIMA model; ANN model; WANN model) are used in this study for drought forecasting based on standard precipitation index of two time scales (SPI; SPI-6 and SPI-12). The optimal data-driven model and time scale of SPI are then selected for effective drought forecasting in the North of Haihe River Basin. The effectiveness of the three data-models is compared by Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, Kendall rank correlation, and the correlation coefficients (R-2). The forecast results shows that the WANN model is more suitable and effective for forecasting SPI-6 and SPI-12 values in the north of Haihe River Basin.