A simulation-optimization modeling approach for watershed-scale agricultural N_2O emission mitigation under multi-level uncertainties

摘要

In this research, an integrated simulation-optimization modeling approach (ISOMA) was developed for supporting agricultural N2O emission mitigation at the watershed scale. This approach can successfully combine soil N2O emission simulation and the consequential mitigation management within a general modeling framework. Also, uncertainties associated with the key soil parameter can be effectively reflected and addressed through adoption of Monte Carlo analysis for the simulation results. The Monte Carlo simulated results were then used to generate fuzzy membership functions that can be consequentially used for emission mitigation management, reflecting the combined uncertainties for N2O emission simulation and mitigation management. The developed ISOMA was then applied to a reservoir watershed in Miyun county of Beijing municipality. In the studying watershed, the simulation model was calibrated and verified. Then, N2O emission from multiple agricultural land-use patterns were predicted. The amounts of N2O emission of four land use patterns (i.e., cash tree, orchard, cropland, and natural forest) were (536.9, 590.8, 653.1), (237.7, 254.4, 275.9), (79.5, 100.7, 105.1), (33.0, 47.3, 61.1) kg CO2 eq ha(-1) year(-1), respectively. Two scenarios (i.e., G(1) and G(2)) were set up according to development priorities of local economy and society. Meanwhile, multiple credibility levels were considered according to the risk of N2O emission. The land use patterns could be adjusted according to solutions of ISOMA. The developed methods could help regional manager choose various production patterns with cost-effective agriculture N2O emission management schemes in the Miyun reservoir watershed. The manager also can obtain deeply insights into the tradeoffs between agricultural benefits and system reliabilities.