Technology forecasting: Energy's hazy future: The power forecasting game, played so avidly by so many in 1970, is now a cautious exercise with fewer, more expert participants

摘要

In the 1960s, a popular exercise in and out of the power industry was predicting the golden age that was dawning upon the world (and especially the United States) in which cheap electric energy would be the catalyst in achieving the Nirvana of unparalleled leisure and prosperity. There were glowing descriptions of nuclear power plants mushrooming up (without the familiar cloud) all over the country; plants that would fulfill every need ¿ from fantastic labor-saving appliances that would transform homes into push-button paradises to vast industrial growth and galloping increases in GNP. All of this was based, of course, on the instant ability of that little imp, ¿Reddy Kilowatt,¿ to plug into that bottomless cornucopia of electricity at bargain-basement rates.