Structural propagation of pandemic shocks: an input-output analysis of the economic costs of COVID-19

摘要

This paper explores the use of simulations in policy decision-making in the Brazilian State of Sao Paulo in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a methodology for assessing the daily economic costs of control strategies for mitigating the effects of coronavirus. The method is based on the partial hypothetical extraction approach to input-output systems. Simulated daily scenarios based on different levels of compliance to the control measures are used to help guide the design of sectoral and territorial-based policies to ease lockdown against the coronavirus outbreak, taking into account the economic and sanitary trade-offs. We present examples of simulations that can substantiate top-level decision-making.