Reliability assessment on earthquake early warning: A case study from Taiwan

摘要

Earthquake early warning (EEW) has been implemented in several regions around the world. However, because of natural randomness and uncertainty, false alarm and missed alarm can be expected in EEW. The key scope of this study is to evaluate the reliability of an on-site EEW in Taiwan, by testing the system's algorithm with 17,836 earthquake data from 1999 to 2013. The analysis shows that the on-site EEW system, empirically speaking, should have a false-alarm probability of 2.5%, and a missed-alarm probability of 14.1%. Considering missed alarm should be more critical to EEW, a new algorithm that could reduce the system's missed-alarm occurrences to 6% is also discussed in this paper.