Microsimulation of the Temporary Housing Situation Following an Urban Disaster:Case Study of an Anticipated Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake

摘要

At present, the expected occurrence of a massive earthquake in the Tokyo metropolitan area is a matter of concern for the Japanese Cabinet Office. In the event of a major urban disaster, it is unclear whether the present policy of housing assistance will work effectively. Microsimulation is a useful research approach to make preliminary proposals for concrete policy issues. To carry out a reliable microsimulation, a household's behavior model was developed using an Internet-based questionnaire system. In addition, the microdata pertaining to rental housing and construction sites of prefabricated housing were generated. Based on these foundational works, a microsimulation model that illustrates the temporary housing situation following an urban disaster was developed. This article discusses (a) the microsimulation outline, (b) the results of calculations, and (c) the issues concerning and ways to enhance the developed model to resolve these issues.