Household Projection and Its Application to Health/Long-Term Care Expenditures in Japan Using INAHSIM-II

摘要

Using a microsimulation model named tegrated Analytical Model for Household Simulation (INAHSIM), the author conducted a household projection in Japan for the period of 20I0-20S0. INAHSIM-II specifically means that the initial population is created using the INAHSIM model itself. The model produces outputs such as (a) the number of the elderly according to dependency and/or living situations, (b) the relative parents/children ratio taking into account the number of brothers and sisters, and (c) a I-year transition matrix by household type. As an application of the model, a projection of health and long-term care expenditures is made for the years 2010-2050 in Japan.