Slater on money: The shipping recovery that never arrived

摘要

As we pass midyear 2014, shippings economics remain stuck in the doldrums will little or no recovery in sight. The surplus capacity of ships to the cargoes requiring transportation has been aggravated by the delivery of a massive orderbook of new ships that followed the boom markets of the middle of the last decade. This surplus is not limited to a few markets but, with the possible exception of gas, both LNG and LPG, it has affected the rest and in particular the wet and dry bulk, and the container markets. Numerous public companies have gone bankrupt as have many private ones. The German KG funds have been almost completely wiped out and created huge losses for the German shipping banks. The average age of the world fleet is at an historic low, meaning it will be around for at least another decade. A majority of the fleets in most sectors trade in the spot markets without any period charter cover, in the false expectation that markets will recover or secondhand values will increase. This, however, ignores the facts that shipyard capacity remains high and in countries like Korea and China has now become a strategic industry supported with domestic banks funding the construction period and government funds backing Export Credit. All without any secure operating income from charters.