Brazil's Nuclear Puzzle

摘要

Brazil is planning to commission later this year a uranium enrichment plant that, if configured to do so, could fuel several nuclear weapons annually. As a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), Brazil has promised not to make such weapons and is obliged to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to ensure this is the case. But this spring Brazil took the extraordinary step of barring the plant's doors to the IAEA's inspectors. Brazil and the IAEA are now negotiating how much access the IAEA will have. The outcome will set a precedent for Iran and any other country that builds an enrichment plant while a member of the treaty. At its announced capacity, Brazil's new facility at Resende will have the potential to produce enough ~(235)U to make five to six implosion-type warheads per year (1, 2). By 2010, as capacity rises, it could make enough every year for 26 to 31 (3) and by 2014 enough for 53 to 63 (4).