A method for assessing the impacts of an international agreement on regional progress towards Sustainable Development Goals

摘要

In 2015,193 countries committed to 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG/SDGs). Assessing the impacts of policies or actions on SDGs can help countries to improve actions towards achieving SDGs. There is a need for quantitative methods for assessing the impacts of international agreements on regional SDGs. To fill this research gap, we constructed a composite methodological framework, including a difference-in-differences (DID) model (based on the interactions between SDGs), a lag-effects model and a difference-in-difference-in-differences (DDD) model. Specifically, the DID and lag-effects models were used to analyze the basic effects of the agreement and the effects lag period. The DDD model was used to analyze the impacts of heterogeneity among countries on the outcomes of the agreement We aim to construct a general methodological framework that can assess the impacts of an agreement on any one SDG. To test this method empirically, we chose the "Belt and Road" Initiative (BRI) and assessed its effects on SDG 1 (no poverty), evaluating data from 20 countries, 15 of which participated in the BRI. The empirical results showed that SDG 1 exhibits spatial agglomeration and spillover effects, and the impacts of BRI may be underestimated if the spatial characteristics are not considered. The BRI appears to promote SDG 1 in 15 participating countries, but the effects have a 2-year lag. The positive effects of BRI on SDG 1 are most pronounced in the 12 upper-middle- and high-income countries among the 15 participating countries. Finally, we analyzed the advantages and limitations of the methodological framework.