Application of fuzzy weight of evidence and data mining techniques in construction of flood susceptibility map of Poyang County, China

摘要

In China, floods are considered as the most frequent natural disaster responsible for severe economic losses and serious damages recorded in agriculture and urban infrastructure. Based on the international experience prevention of flood events may not be completely possible, however identifying susceptible and vulnerable areas through prediction models is considered as a more visible task with flood susceptibility mapping being an essential tool for flood mitigation strategies and disaster preparedness. In this context, the present study proposes a novel approach to construct a flood susceptibility map in the Poyang County, JiangXi Province, China by implementing fuzzy weight of evidence (fuzzy-WofE) and data mining methods. The novelty of the presented approach is the usage of fuzzy-WofE that had a twofold purpose. Firstly, to create an initial flood susceptibility map in order to identify non-flood areas and secondly to weight the importance of flood related variables which influence flooding. Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) were implemented considering eleven flood related variables, namely: lithology, soil cover, elevation, slope angle, aspect, topographic wetness index, stream power index, sediment transport index, plan curvature, profile curvature and distance from river network. The efficiency of this new approach was evaluated using area under curve (AUC) which measured the prediction and success rates. According to the outcomes of the performed analysis, the fuzzy WofE-SVM model was the model with the highest predictive performance (AUC value, 0.9865) which also appeared to be statistical significant different from the other predictive models, fuzzy WofE-RF (AUC value, 0.9756) and fuzzy WofE-LR (AUC value, 0.9652). The proposed methodology and the produced flood susceptibility map could assist researchers and local governments in flood mitigation strategies.