Warning of negative effects of land-use changes on ecological security based on GIS

摘要

Urbanization leads to dramatic changes in regional land-use patterns and threatens regional ecological security. Based on G1S and existing key ecological spaces, timely threat warnings to regional ecological spaces caused by artificial land-use changes and the identification of appropriate precautionary measures are necessary for the sustainable development of regional land resources. Taking 2010 as the base year, the study forecasts the demand for new construction land in the surveyed region in 2015 and 2030 using a Markov model; on this basis, a logistic cellular automata (CA) model is built to forecast the land use distribution related to construction land expansion and requisition-compensation balance of cultivated land. An OA value of 85.05% and a Kappa coefficient of 77.48% indicate a good simulation accuracy. By overlaying the existing regional key ecological spaces with the forecasted distribution of land-use changes, potential ecological security alerts are derived from the regional land-use changes. Results show that according to the current development mode, by 2030, the regional ecological security in the study area will be threatened by 35% of the new construction land and 80% of the supplementary cultivated land. The early warning mechanism for land-use ecological security can effectively forewarn the ecological threats derived from land use, thus helping decision makers to prevent risks in advance. Finally, the corresponding precautionary strategy is put forward.