Scenario-based Changes in the Annual Sum of Active Temperatures and Annual Total Precipitation in Russia and Neighboring Countries and Their Possible Consequences for Agriculture

摘要

The study presents the projected changes in two important agroclimatic parameters, namely, in the annual sum of active temperatures with a threshold of 10°C (SAT) and in annual total precipitation in Russia and neighboring countries. These changes are estimated using climatic data obtained by averaging the simulation results of 31 CMIP5 global climate models under the RCP4.5 moderate scenario of anthropogenic impact on the terrestrial climate system provided by the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory. The changes are evaluated for the current 20 years (2011-2030) as compared to 1981-2000 and for 2034-2053, when the average global air temperature rise will reach 2°C relative to the preindustrial level as compared to 2011-2030. A statistically significant phased increase in the analyzed agroclimatic parameters is noted for the whole territory of Russia in the subsequent periods as compared to the previous ones. The scenario-based calculations reveal that the SAT increase will be more evenly distributed in space, whereas the increase in annual total precipitation will be rather nonuniform. The results may be used for the agricultural planning and for the realization of protection activities, with account of the prediction of the distribution and mass reproduction of agricultural plant pathogens.