APPLICATION OF PALEOINFORMATION FOR ASSESSMENT OF EFFICIENCY OF DESIGN HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS

摘要

The substantiation is given of correctness of the accepted technology for en-gineering-hydrological computations based on the application of the basic statistical properties of river runoff obtained from the data of the observed time series for the given period of operation of hydraulic structures. For this purpose, the restoration of the maximum river runoff has been fulfilled on the Dnieper River at the Lotsmanskaya Kamenka site for 4000 years. A detailed statistical analysis of long-term fluctuations of the maximum water discharges is carried out for the paleoreconstruction obtained. Special attention is given to an estimation of statistical homogeneity and stationarity of long-term fluctuations of the maximum runoff with the use of criteria of homogeneity such as Student's, Fisher's, Dixon's and Smirnov-Grubbs's tests, generalized for the case of autocorrelation for a type of first-order Markov chain and asymmetric information. The estimation of parameters and quantiles of maximum runoff is fulfilled using samples of various sizes with determination of random standard errors of computations for the period of operation of hydraulic structures.